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Jonas Aranda

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2025 AFC West Division Preview

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The AFC West, much like the NFC West and NFC North, is one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. 4 Hall of Fame head coaches and 4 starting QBs who all won 10 or more games last season. 3 playoff teams emerged from this division last season, and the 4th place team made a lot of improvements at key spots. The Chiefs have pretty much kept the rest of the division at bay in the Patrick Mahomes era, but how much will that change with the influx of high-level coaching and talent? How close is the rest of the division to the team that has appeared in 5 of the last 7 Super Bowls and won 3 of them?

1. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Head Coach, Coordinator Changes: N/A
  • Free Agency Signings, Retentions: G Trey Smith, LB Nick Bolton, WR Marquise Brown, T Jaylon Moore, NT Derrick Nnadi (trade), CB Kristian Fulton, QB Gardner Minshew, S Mike Edwards, DT Jerry Tillery, QB Bailey Zappe, RB Elijah Mitchell, TE Robert Tonyan
  • Notable Draft Selections: T Josh Simmons, DT Omarr Norman-Lott, EDGE Ashton Gillotte, CB Nohl Williams, WR Jalen Royals

The Kansas City Chiefs have dominated the AFC West over the last decade, winning the division 9 for consecutive years, and looking to make it 10. Kansas City’s offense has been underwhelming since Patrick Mahomes’ most recent MVP season in 2022. In 2023 and 2024, the Chiefs were a fringe top 10 offense statistically after consistently being an elite offense from 2018-2022. Kansas City may have something to prove following these disappointing offensive seasons, some talking heads trying to put other QBs in the #1 spot, and an embarrassing blowout loss in the Super Bowl as the team was chasing the first ever threepeat in NFL history. Can they get back to the Super Bowl for the 6th time in 8 years and capture the 4th Super Bowl trophy of the Patrick Mahomes era?

This Chiefs offense could be the best offense since the drop-off post-2022. Losing G Joe Thuney is a big loss, but if Josh Simmons ends up being an upgrade at LT and Kingsley Suamataia can successfully transition to LG, the offensive line can be serviceable enough to run the ball and for Mahomes to work some of his magic. Travis Kelce has clearly regressed from being the Hall of Fame tight end he’ll be remembered as to just being a solid starter for a contender, but the WR room once Rashee Rice returns from his 6-game suspension looks to be very promising. Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown can stretch the field while Rice and Kelce work the short-intermediate areas in the middle of the field. Combine that with Mahomes’ magic and Worthy and Rice’s ability after the catch, and this Chiefs offense can be one of the league’s best again.

On the defense, it’s more or less the same for Kansas City. DT Chris Jones and CB Trent McDuffie are still the two stars on this defense, the linebacker group is still strong, and Steve Spagnuolo is going to stay aggressive and make bold in-game adjustments, as he always does. George Karlaftis is a good #2 pass rusher, but KC would really like either for one of these other defensive linemen to also reach that level, or for Karlaftis to take his game to another level in case Jones gets injured or begins to noticeably decline. The secondary outside of McDuffie is a concern as well, and although Spags seems to always find a way to get the best out of that group, it will be something to monitor. With that being said, it’s difficult to bet against Mahomes and Reid in this division until they finally do fall.

Record Prediction: 13-4

2. Denver Broncos

  • Head Coach, Coordinator Changes: N/A
  • Free Agency Signings, Retentions: LB Dre Greenlaw, S Talanoa Hufanga, TE Evan Engram, RB J.K. Dobbins, WR Trent Sherfield, FB Adam Prentice, LB Garret Wallow, QB Sam Ehlinger
  • Notable Draft Selections: NCB Jahdae Barron, RB RJ Harvey, WR Pat Bryant

The Denver Broncos have quickly went from one of the laughingstocks of the NFL just a couple years ago during the Russell Wilson debacle to one of the most respected teams amongst analysts. HC Sean Payton came back after a year off and immediately made it known that it was his way or the highway. After a season of frustration and clearly butting heads, Sean Payton decided to cut ties with Russell Wilson and bring in rookie QB Bo Nix as his replacement. Heading into the 2024 season with sportsbooks setting their win total at 5.5 before the season began, Denver ended up winning 10 games and making the playoffs. The Broncos did end up getting pummeled by the Buffalo Bills in the playoffs, but they have made improvements over the offseason and are now one of the most talented rosters in the NFL.

Let’s kick this off with what may end up finishing as the best defense in football. The talent on this side of the ball is unreal. On the defensive line is DE Zach Allen, who is one of the best run stuffers and interior pass rushers in the NFL, underrated DT John Franklin-Myers, 2024 All-Pro EDGE Nik Bonnito, and another very good pass rushing EDGE in Jonathon Cooper. In 2024, the Broncos led the NFL in sacks with 54, which was 9 more than the 2nd place Houston Texans. The Broncos defensive line, and linebacker group that we’ll touch on soon, were able to continuously put opposing offenses in 3rd & long and allow themselves to pin their ears back and get after the QB. There’s no reason to think this won’t continue, and in fact, there’s even more reason to think this will actually improve.

Beyond the defensive line, the Broncos decided to make a couple high risk, high reward additions to their linebacker room and secondary. LB Dre Greenlaw and S Talanoa Hufanga were both All-Pro caliber players before their injuries in San Francisco, and now they’re being added to what was already one of the best defenses in football last season. If both of these players can stay healthy and even just be 85% of what they were at their best, this defense will be difficult to take advantage of on any of the 3 levels. The addition of 1st-round NCB Jahdae Barron may be transformative for this defense. Barron’s physicality, versatility, and IQ from the nickel can give the Broncos a lot of flexibility and emphasis on their attacking play style. There’s no need to bring up the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, CB Patrick Surtain II, we already know what he is.

On offense, the Broncos do have avenues to improve after a mediocre 2024 season. The offensive line is already one of the best in the league, but the running game still wasn’t very good last season, which shows just how poor the RB room was. Denver decided to go out and draft UCF RB RJ Harvey in the 2nd round of the 2025 NFL Draft and sign J.K. Dobbins in free agency after racking up 905 yards in 13 games for the Chargers last season. Harvey adds an element of explosiveness to the running game that Denver didn’t have last season, and Dobbins can take some carries and pick up decent yardage behind a line this good.

The passing game is probably going to decide exactly what the ceiling is for this for this Broncos team. WR Courtland Sutton earned a contract extension after a nice 2024, Evan Engram is an upgrade at tight end even though he leaves a lot to be desired, and Marvin Mims can stretch the field a bit, but this group of pass catchers isn’t all that inspiring. Bo Nix will have a good amount of time to throw due to the offensive line and Sean Payton did a good job last season scheming around Nix’s limitations, but between the personnel and Nix himself, this passing game feels like it has a clear ceiling and lacks the explosive elements to be prolific. It’s also important to note that Nix struggled mightily for the most part when he came across some of the league’s top defenses. The Broncos passing game may improve marginally, but that’s about where it stops. The real improvement from this offense should come through the added playmakers in the backfield and how much more they can take advantage of the play in the trenches compared to their predecessors.

Record Prediction: 11-6

3. Las Vegas Raiders

  • Head Coach, Coordinator Changes: HC Pete Carroll, OC Chip Kelly
  • Free Agency Signings, Retentions: QB Geno Smith (trade), EDGE Malcolm Koonce, S Jeremy Chinn, LB Elandon Roberts, CB Eric Stokes, LB Germaine Pratt, LB Jamal Adams, WR Amari Cooper, DT Thomas Booker (trade), S/NCB Lonnie Johnson, LB Devin White, RG Alex Cappa, QB Kenny Pickett, RB Raheem Mostert, NT Leki Fotu
  • Notable Draft Selections: RB Ashton Jeanty, WR Jack Bech, CB Darien Porter, WR Dont’e Thornton, DT JJ Pegues

The Raiders are arguably the most improved team in 2025. From Antonio Pierce to Pete Carroll at head coach. From Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell to Geno Smith at starting quarterback. From Luke Getsy to Chip Kelly at offensive coordinator. From Zamir White to Ashton Jeanty at starting running back. The Raiders have some star talent, byt have needed a culture shift and foundation to be laid down for quite some time. Stability was the goal for the organization this offseason, but how much did they really improve this offseason after a 4-13 record in the 2024 season?

Offense is where winning starts for the Raiders this season, unlike the last few. The upgrade from Minshew and O’Connell to Geno Smith is immense. Smith has shown an ability to manage playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, and even with their own questions, the Raiders’ offensive line should be an improvement from the unit Smith played behind in Seattle. Speaking of the offensive line, the starting 5 the Raiders are rolling out to begin this season (Kolton Miller, Dylan Parham, Jordan Meredith, Jackson Powers-Johnson, and DJ Glaze) finished the 2024 season with a strong stretch. If that group can give the team average or better play, the upside of this offense can be unlocked and get close to a top 10 offense, if not outright.

The weapons that Geno Smith has been equipped with are more than enough. Sophomore TE Brock Bowers earned an unquestioned top 2 spot at his position as a rookie, veteran WR Jakobi Meyers is a reliable 2nd receiving weapon who can line up out wide and in the slot, and rookie RB Ashton Jeanty should make his presence felt right away, as he was spoken of in the same light as Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson as a prospect. 3rd-year TE Michael Mayer gives the team the ability to be comfortable using a heavy dose of 12 personnel, which OC Chip Kelly loves to use nowadays. 3rd-year WR Tre Tucker and rookie WR Dont’e Thornton can both stretch the field vertically with their speed and have the ability to keep the defense honest. This Raiders offense is funky and can be one of the best watches in the league this season.

The defense, however, is not one that gives many reasons for optimism. The team does have DE Maxx Crosby, who is one of the best in the league at his position, but just about everyone else is either unproven and/or has another question to answer in 2025. EDGE Malcolm Koonce had a phenomenal 2nd half of 2023, but is coming off of a torn ACL that he suffered before Week 1 in 2024. S Jeremy Chinn was a nice addition to the secondary, but he’s the only proven vet in that group. The rest of the defense consists of either rookies or reclamation projects. DC Patrick Graham has shown an ability to optimize the talent he is given to the best of his abilities throughout his time as a defensive coordinator, but it would take wizardry to raise this defense to mediocrity.

Record Prediction: 9-8

4. Los Angeles Chargers

  • Head Coach, Coordinator Changes: N/A
  • Free Agency Signings, Retentions: EDGE Khalil Mack, G Mekhi Becton, CB Donte Jackson, C Bradley Bozeman, NT Teair Tart, S Elijah Molden, RB Najee Harris, WR Keenan Allen, DE Da’Shawn Hand, CB Benjamin St-Juste, DT Naquan Jones, LB Denzel Perryman, TE Tyler Conklin, QB Trey Lance, C Andre James
  • Notable Draft Selections: RB Omarion Hampton, WR Tre Harris, DT Jamaree Caldwell, EDGE Kyle Kennard, WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith

The Chargers were one of the best turnarounds in the NFL last season. After years of underachieving, the franchise finally decided to invest heavily in head coach and brought in Jim Harbaugh shortly after he won a national championship with the Michigan Wolverines (and before he would get a long suspension from college football). Harbaugh made it a priority to protect his QB and complement the defense. During what some thought would be an active free agency period for the Chargers, the team actually stood relatively quiet and mainly brought back players from the 11-win season they had in 2024. With that quiet free agency period and mainly focusing on the draft, it’s fair to ask whether the team got better, worse, or stood the same.

The offense made some good additions at the skill positions in the draft. Rookie RB Omarion Hampton was the consensus RB2 during the draft process and was seen as a true 1st-round talent by many, and rookie WRs Tre Harris and KeAndre Lambert-Smith are battling for a higher spot on the depth chart, maybe even for a starting role. G Mekhi Becton was also added in hopes of upgrading the offensive line after getting shipped off by the team who drafted him and starting for the Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles. The strongest aspect of this offense was supposed to be the bookend tackles consisting of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt before Slater went down with a season-ending torn patellar tendon injury in training camp. With the Slater injury taking place, it’s difficult to see the Chargers making substantial improvements on offense, if any improvement, even with the Becton addition and the skill positions being upgraded.

On defense, the Chargers feel like a prime candidate for regression. Outside of All-Pro Derwin James and a 34-year old Khalil Mack (who is still very good), the talent on this defense isn’t encouraging. A lot of complementary talent up front was lost (Joey Bosa, Bud Dupree, Morgan Fox), and the loss of NT Poona Ford’s amazing run stuffing abilities is going to be felt. Jesse Minter’s defense, essentially the same scheme as Seattle Seahawks HC Mike MacDonald, was able to feast on bad teams last season, but the talent deficiencies were felt vs playoff teams. With the Chargers looking at a 2nd place schedule instead of a 4th place schedule this season, the defense will be given harder tests this year whilst needing to find ways to replace the pass rush production they lost in the offseason. If Jesse Minter finds a way to replicate last season’s results and even be a borderline top 10 defense next season, he may be the hottest head coach candidate on the defensive side of the ball heading into the next head coaching cycle. With that being said, Harbaugh, Herbert, and Minter give this team a solid floor, and they should be in the mix late.

Record Prediction: 8-9