2025 AFC East Division Preview

The AFC East has been a division with a clear ruler for just about the entire 21st century. From the years 2000-2019, the New England Patriots dynasty had won the division 17 out of 20 seasons, including 11 straight from 2009-2019. Since then, the Bills have been the AFC East champions every year through the first half of the 2020s, and challenges for the throne have been seldom. The Patriots and Jets both made drastic changes, meanwhile the Bills and Dolphins mostly stood the same. Will results also change, or will the Buffalo Bills continue their streak of division titles during this decade?

1. Buffalo Bills

Head Coach, Coordinator Changes: N/A
Free Agency Signings, Retentions: EDGE Joey Bosa, LB Shaq Thompson, WR Joshua Palmer, DT Larry Ogunjobi, DL Michael Hoecht, FB Reggie Gilliam, CB Tre’Davious White, CB Dane Jackson, RB Ty Johnson, WR Elijah Moore, G Kendrick Green, WR Laviska Shenault
Notable Draft Selections: CB Maxwell Hairston, DT TJ Sanders, EDGE Landon Jackson, CB Dorian Strong

The Buffalo Bills have been one of the premier teams in the AFC for multiple years now. The combination of Josh Allen, a bonafide top 3 QB in the NFL, and a well-coached defense with some good talent has given the Bills a floor that most teams can’t compare to. The question with the Bills heading into every season isn’t if they’ll make the playoffs, but whether or not they can finally get over the hump whenever they play the Chiefs. That question still remains, but there’s no doubt that they will be playing in the middle of January, barring an injury to Josh Allen.

Buffalo’s offense has been elite since the beginning of the decade. They’ve been top 5 in points per game in 4/5 of the seasons since 2020. Josh Allen, a revamped running game under OC Joe Brady, and a very good offensive line all indicate that a similar level of success will be reached by this Buffalo offense in 2025. The injury to Khalil Shakir can hinder the Bills early on given the lack of depth in the WR room, but Allen has proved he can elevate weapons on the outside. Buffalo’s 12 personnel sets can also mitigate the loss of Shakir for a short stretch.

Defensively, there is a lot of good, but you wonder where the great is at. Christian Benford and Taron Johnson are really good at their position. The defensive line is full of good players; Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver, AJ Epenesa, Joey Bosa, Daquon Jones. Matt Milano is a difficult evaluation because of the injuries, but if you give him the benefit of the doubt, he is still good. Terrell Bernard is also a good linebacker. There is still some questions for certain spots in the secondary, but you expect this defense to once again be good. Sean McDermott is a good coach, as well. There is a lot of good here, but is there enough great here to get enough big stops late in the playoffs to not only win thr Super Bowl, but to even get to one? That remains to be seen.

Record Prediction: 13-4

2. New England Patriots

Head Coach, Coordinator Changes: HC Mike Vrabel, OC Josh McDaniels, DC Terrell Williams
Free Agency Signings, Retentions: DT Milton Williams, CB Carlton Davis, WR Stefon Diggs, LB Robert Spillane, RT Morgan Moses, C Garrett Bradbury, EDGE Harold Landry, EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson, LB Christian Elliss, WR Mack Hollins, S Marcus Epps, LB Jack Gibbens, DT Khyiris Tonga
Notable Draft Selections: T Will Campbell, RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Kyle Williams, C Jared Wilson, S Craig Woodson, EDGE Bradyn Swinson

The twilight years of Bill Belichick and the lone year of Jerod Mayo were embarrassing for the Patriots. Coordinators that were out of their area of expertise, no identity on offense, calling out players as an unproven head coach, no belief in the young head coach within the building. Now, a culture shift, or maybe a modified version of the culture under Bill Belichick, seems to be underway with the hiring of HC Mike Vrabel, who is a proven winner. A lot of the top free agents at their positions (albeit a relatively weak free agent class) ended up signing with the Patriots. New England also had a draft that many liked. All of that combined with a promising QB and a favorable schedule has people optimistic about the New England Patriots in 2025.

There is a lot of youth on this Patriots offense, which naturally leaves a lot of questions. Can Drake Maye take a leap? Can Will Campbell play left tackle at a high-level in the NFL? What will TreVeyon Henderson’s workload and impact be? Which young receivers can breakout and make an impact? The offensive line should certainly be better, but just how much better will it be? Stefon Diggs coming off of an ACL tear at 32 years old is also a mystery.

With all those questions comes an experienced offensive coordinator. Josh McDaniels, although one of the worst head coaches of all-time, is still a good offensive coordinator. Though he has struggled to adapt to certain concepts that are having success in the current NFL (RPOs, heavier emphasis on play action, wide zone runs), McDaniels has shown a willingness to add to or tweak his offense depending on who is under center. When coaching Cam Newton, McDaniels did a nice job with designing QB runs for Newton, and that should also be beneficial for the athletic Drake Maye. He also showed an ability to simplify his offense to make it easier for a young QB when he was the offensive coordinator in the lone playoff berth for the Patriots with Mac Jones under center, which will also be beneficial for Maye, in theory. This offense should be respectable and that may be all New England needs to have a successful year 1 under the new regime.

The Patriots defense has a chance to be a very good unit in 2025 after making big additions on all 3 levels. On the defensive line, the Patriots added DT Milton Williams, who was arguably the best overall free agent on the market and best defensive player on the field during the Super Bowl. There were also extra depth added to the EDGE and interior rotations via the draft and free agency. Christian Barmore will also be returning after taking a year off for nursing blood clots. This defensive line should be good defending the run and pushing the pocket through the interior.

Beyond the defensive line, the Patriots also added a starter that you feel very comfortable with at the next two levels. LB Robert Spillane made big strides with the Raiders after signing a 2-year deal. Already a solid run defender, Spillane took a leap as a pass defender and recorded 5 interceptions in two seasons as a starter for the Raiders after recording just 1 interception in the 5 NFL seasons prior to his Raiders stint. CB Carlton Davis was also added to the secondary to be the other starting corner opposite of shutdown CB Christian Gonzalez. Davis has been productive for most of his career and has been an above average starter on a Super Bowl team, but both he and Gonzalez have dealt with injuries in their career. Between the additions, some high-level talent inherited, and a very smart defensive coaching staff that is adaptable, this Patriots defense has real upside and may be able to feed on some of these inferior teams they face on their schedule

Record Prediction: 9-8

3. Miami Dolphins

Head Coach, Coordinator Changes: N/A
Free Agency Signings, Retentions: S Minkah Fitzpatrick (trade), G James Daniels, CB Jack Jones, NCB Mike Hilton, G Liam Eichenberg, TE Darren Waller (trade), WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, QB Zach Wilson, DT Matthew Butler, RB Alexander Mattison, LB Willie Gay, LB KJ Britt, S Ashtyn Davis, CB Kendall Sheffield, OL Larry Borom, TE Pharaoh Brown, G Daniel Brunskill
Notable Draft Selections: DT Kenneth Grant, G Jonah Savaiinaea, DL Jordan Phillips, QB Quinn Ewers

Mike McDaniel was once seen as one of the youngest, brightest offensive-minded head coaches in the NFL, and now he’s likely on the hot seat entering this season. With McDaniel and GM Chris Grier largely ignoring the offensive line aand putting all of their eggs in the Tua Tagovailoa basket, the Dolphins have had a clear ceiling and have not been seen as much of a threat once the winter season hits. Tua’s below average arm strength and concerning health, the lack of push from the offensive line in the run game, injuries and free agency losses on the defensive line, and a playstyle that is more finess than physical has left this team led by McDaniel and Tagovailoa with results that have been seen as disappointing. With another offseason of team building and some drama involving a star WR, can the Miami Dolphins get back to the playoffs?

The offense is mostly the same for Miami. They added a couple interior linemen who may start, but the tackle situation is extremely concerning with the loss of Terron Armstead and no established starter to replace him with. Tua Tagovailoa infamously has missed games and was even given advice to retire with his health scares, so protecting him is important on levels that go beyond football. The skill group is more of the same with Hill and Waddle on the outside and De’Von Achane in the backfield, though the loss of Jonnu Smith is sneakily a big one for this offense, as Smith hauled in 88 catches and went for almost 900 yards last season. Darren Waller was once an All-Pro years ago, but it’s unfair to expect him to replace Smith’s explosive RAC ability and also be available at the age of 33 after dealing with so many injuries at a physical position.

The defense is the most interesting part of this defense. In 2024, DC Anthony Weaver came over from the Baltimore Ravens and then helped a Dolphins defense that was dismissed before the season end up overachieving. Last season, the Dolphins were 6th in yards allowed and 9th in points allowed per game. The defensive line is a position group for Miami that has real upside. Chop Robinson had a solid rookie season and has a chance to make this a breakout season, Jaelan Phillips will have a full offseason after coming back from injury last season, and Bradley Chubb will also return this season following an ACL tear late in the 2023 season. The Dolphins also added athletic freak IDL Kenneth Grant with the 13th overall pick in the 2024 draft, which will be a nice partner for Zach Sieler, who is coming off of back-to-back seasons with 10 sacks.

The secondary for the Dolphins has some good and some bad. The good: Minkah Fitzpatrick and Ifeatu Melifonwu are a good safety duo if they can both stay healthy. The bad: This cornerback room is not encouraging in the slightest. The safeties combined with the disguised defenses and simulated pressures created by Anthony Weaver may be able to hide some of the deficiencies of the cornerback group, but if the pressure does not end up coming through there may be some big plays to be had by opposing offenses.

Record Prediction: 7-10

4. New York Jets

Head Coach, Coordinator Changes: HC Aaron Glenn, OC Tanner Engstrand, DC Steve Wilks
Free Agency Signings, Retentions: QB Justin Fields, WR Josh Reynolds, S Andre Cisco, C Josh Myers, CB Brandon Stephens, K Nick Folk, OT Chukwuma Okorafor, DT Byron Cowart, DT Derrick Nnadi, DT Jay Tufele, CB Kris Boyd, WR Tyler Johnson, DE Rashad Weaver
Notable Draft Selections: OT Armand Membou, TE Mason Taylor, CB A’Zareyeh Thomas, WR Arian Smith, S Malachi Moore

The New York Jets, for the first time in a while, had a quiet offseason relative to what they are used to. No big expectations, no gunning for a star veteran QB who they hope will save the team, no drafting a QB who is expected to be a savior in year 1, no speculated trades throughout the season, no drama whatsoever. Instead, they had a normal rebuilding offseason. The Jets hired a head coach who is respected as a leader and was a very good coach for the franchise back in the 90s and early 2000s, brought in a bridge QB who has familiarity with the star WR, completed the rebuild of the offensive line, and locked down cornerstone pieces of the franchise (CB Sauce Gardner and WR Garrett Wilson. While the Jets may not be the best team in 2025, there are some things to be excited about for the future, and even this season.

The offensive line can be a very good unit right out of the gate. Olu Fashanu showed flashes of being a franchise LT, John Simpson and Alijah Vera-Tucker are good interior linemen, and Armand Membou was seen by some as the best tackle in the draft, and will be playing his natural position at RT. The run blocking should immediately be a strength for this team, and the Jets have some dynamic runners in the backfield. Justin Fields, Breece Hall and Braelon Allen have all shown they can be good runners of the football, with Fields and Hall each having an element of explosiveness in their rushing.

As for the passing attack, that is a major concern. Garrett Wilson is extremely talented and is a #1 WR, but outside of Wilson there isn’t a lot to be confident in. Josh Reynolds was a decent WR2 for new OC Tanner Engstrand when they worked together on the Lions, but he didn’t have a good 2024. Mason Taylor was a good TE prospect coming out of LSU, but he needs to prove he can be productive first. Most importantly, Justin Fields simply hasn’t been a consistent passer of the football, and his style of play as a passer also doesn’t mesh with the theoretical offense under Tanner Engstrand would look like. Fields is a shotgun QB who holds onto the ball for long, is a boundary passer, and looks for the big play more often than not. Engstrand’s offense (once again, in theory) has the QB under center a lot with a heavy dose of play action and looks to attack the middle of the field quickly. The pass game is where a lot of confidence in this Jets offense is lost.

After a few years of having a highly-touted defense, the Jets have a lot of questions on that side of the ball heading into 2025. While New York has a star DT and a star CB, their position groups still have holes. Will McDonald broke out last season, but the loss of Jermaine Johnson and the lack of depth behind Quinnen Williams leave glaring weaknesses on this defensive line. Brandon Stephens was hunted a lot in Baltimore and did not hold up well, but maybe rookie CB Azareye’h Thomas can win that job opposite of Gardner and give the team a better option than Stephens. The return of NCB Michael Carter may also be offset by the absence of DE Jermaine Johnson. The starting linebacker duo of Jamien Sherwood and Quincy Williams may be the cleanest spot on this defense, but with so many question marks, the Jets defense being as good as they once were isn’t really in the realm of possibilities this season.

Record Prediction: 4-13