2025 AFC South Division Preview

The top of the AFC South has fluctuated over the last decade. The Texans, Titans and Jaguars have all won the division 2 or more times since 2015, and the Colts have also been a wild card playoff team a couple times within that period. The Texans look to be a team who can stay atop the division for years to come, but there is new blood to be accounted for after the top 2 picks from the 2025 NFL Draft landed in the AFC South. Can the Texans put a stranglehold on this division? Will a unicorn in Jacksonville put them over the top? Will a rookie QB lead his team to the playoffs for the 3rd season in a row? Can a new-look defense in Indianapolis change their fortune? Let’s take a look at the AFC South.

1. Houston Texans

Head Coach, Coordinator Changes: OC Nick Caley
Free Agency Signings, Retentions: G Ed Ingram (trade), S CJ Gardner-Johnson (trade), WR Christian Kirk (trade), LB EJ Speed, DL Sheldon Rankins, EDGE Darrell Taylor, OT Trent Brown, C Jake Andrews, RB Nick Chubb, OT Cam Robinson, WR Braxton Berrios, WR Justin Watson, EDGE Derek Barnett, DL Mario Edwards Jr.
Notable Draft Selections: WR Jayden Higgins, OT Aireontae Ersery, WR Jaylin Noel, CB Jaylin Smith, RB Woody Marks

Just a few years ago, the Texans were one of the laughing stocks of the NFL after the Deshaun Watson situation and cycling through head coaches. Then in the 2023 offseason, everything changed. The hiring of DeMeco Ryans and their extremely bold 2023 draft instantly put them back into playoff contention. In 2024, Houston made some splash moves by bringing in Danielle Hunter and Stefon Diggs, and it seemed like Houston was ready to be a dark horse Super Bowl team, with some even predicting them to get there. After noticeable regression from former OC Bobby Slowik and the offensive line and 2 of their top receivers, Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs, suffering season-ending injuries, the Texans had somewhat of a disappointing season relative to expectations. After making some changes to the offensive line and coaching staff, Houston’s looking to improve after what can be seen as an underwhelming 2024.

Let’s begin with the biggest move by the Houston Texans: OC Nick Caley. Caley is coming over from the Rams, a team that has recently adapted after their own woes a few years ago after the Super Bowl run. More importantly, the Rams have been able to elevate offensive linemen and help them be an average unit, which has been more than enough for Stafford, and mediocrity should be enough for Stroud with this WR core. Caley, in theory, will be able to do something similar and create a more efficient rushing and play action attack as a result. With the personnel Caley is being given, this might not be the only way Houston can succeed offensively.

The Texans, once again, have a deep WR core. Nico Collins is one of the top 10 WRs in the NFL, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are two promising players out of Iowa State who can end up being very good complementary players to Nico Collins, and Christian Kirk is a solid veteran as a slot WR. Houston has also added a lot of new bodies to the offensive line, giving them more options to put out their best 5. Losing Laremy Tunsil is definitely significant, but maybe there is a chance this strategy ends up being a net positive.

One thing that is undeniable about this Texans team: This defense is elite. Houston has two of the best positional duos in the league. Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter are one of the best EDGE duos in the NFL, if not the best. In the secondary, Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter are one of the best cornerback duos in the NFL. Between these duos, good role players surrounding them, and DeMeco Ryans’ top notch defensive coaching, everyone can expect this Texans defense to be near the top of the league once again.

Record Prediction: 11-6

2. Jacksonville Jaguars

Head Coach, Coordinator Changes: HC Liam Coen, OC Grant Udinski, DC Anthony Campanile
Free Agency Signings, Retentions: NCB Jourdan Lewis, G Patrick Mekari, WR Dyami Brown, DL Arik Armstead, C Robert Hainsey, S Eric Murray, DL Emmanuel Ogbah, QB Nick Mullens, TE Johnny Mundt, TE Hunter Long, G Chuma Edoga, T Fred Johnson, WR Trenton Irwin, TE Quinton Morris, DL Dawuane Smoot
Notable Draft Selections: WR/CB Travis Hunter, S Caleb Ransaw, OL Wyatt Milum, RB Bhayshul Tuten

The Jaguars have underachieved a lot since they defeated the Chargers in one of the craziest playoff comebacks we’ve ever seen. After Trevor Lawrence plateaued, the Jaguars decided to move on from former HC Doug Pederson and (eventually) former GM Trent Baalke in order to bring in offensive guru Liam Coen and a young, bold GM James Gladstone. This season is going to be a big one for Lawrence, as it seems there won’t be many to blame for not performing well aside from himself. Unlocking Lawrence’s upside looks to be the goal for the franchise this season, and they’ve made that known between their comments and making a very aggressive move to add prospective superstar Travis Hunter. Is there upside for a playoff push? Possibly.

What catches your attention when you first look at the Jaguars offense is the high-end talent on the outside. Brian Thomas Jr. was a top 10 receiver in the NFL as a rookie and Travis Hunter is one of the most dynamic prospects of the 21st century. This duo has potential to be one of the absolute best WR duos in the league in year 1, which is a huge upgrade from what Lawrence had on the outside just a couple seasons ago. Thomas’ ability to consistently win deep and intermediately combined with Hunter’s twitchiness and RAC ability is a fantastic complement to one another, and both are ample in contested catch situations. If both are healthy this season, they’ll be able to deliver for Trevor Lawrence every Sunday.

Jacksonville also made an effort to upgrade the offensive line, especially on the interior. C Robert Hainsey followed Liam Coen from Tampa Bay, G Patrick Mekari came over from Baltimore, and G Wyatt Milum was a solid prospect coming out of West Virginia. Are any of these guys going to suddenly turn into Chris Lindstrom and blow you away? Most likely not, but there is a chance they perform better than Jacksonville’s interior from last season, especially after Liam Coen showed he could elevate an offensive line during his lone season with the Buccaneers. If Coen can replicate that and turn this line into a mediocre unit, that would be a win and should make this Jaguars offense successful.

On defense, the Jags aren’t the most exciting team. Outside of the EDGE duo of Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker, there are mostly question marks or uninspiring players. The linebacker core is headed by Devin Lloyd, Foyesade Oluokun and Chad Muma. Lloyd is the best out of the bunch, but inconsistency holds him back from truly reaching his best. The cornerback room has some talent, especially with the additions of Jourdan Lewis and Travis Hunter, but playing both ways can be very challenging for a rookie. Tyson Campbell has also regressed since earning his second contract, but there is definitely upside for the cornerback room. The EDGE duo is a very good one, but the upside for this defense will most likely come from internal improvement from Campbell and Lloyd, and Travis Hunter proving he can play both ways at a high level in the NFL. Realistically, this defense needs another offseason to really be ready for a playoff push, though a pathway is there for this season.

Record Prediction: 8-9

3. Indianapolis Colts

Head Coach, Coordinator Changes: DC Lou Anarumo
Free Agency Signings, Retentions: CB Charvarius Ward, S Cam Bynum, QB Daniel Jones, DL Neville Gallimore, RB Khalil Herbert, DL Eric Johnson II, LB Joe Bachie, LB Jacob Phillips, CB Corey Ballentine, T Luke Tenuta, WR Ajou Ajou
Notable Draft Selections: TE Tyler Warren, EDGE JT Tuimoloau, CB Justin Walley, RB DJ Giddens

The Colts were seen as a potential dark horse playoff team heading into the 2024 season. Anthony Richardson’s flashes as a rookie before getting injured were real, and the thought of another offseason with the well-respected offensive mind of HC Shane Steichen was tantalizing. Now, just a year later, there’s a chance that Richardson isn’t even the week 1 starter for the Indianapolis Colts. Oh, the difference a year can make. It’s not ridiculous to say Steichen and GM Chris Ballard may be on the hot seat if Richardson really doesn’t end up working out after he was such a high-risk prospect to begin with. Now the questions lie: Can Indy’s offseason additions be impactful enough to change the trajectory of this team? Can Shane Steichen get enough out of whoever wins this QB battle to help them win enough in order to keep himself safe?

The QB battle in Indianapolis is between Anthony Richardson and former New York Giants starting QB Daniel Jones. Richardson is undoubtedly the more talented of the two, but Jones has shown the capability of being fine on a playoff team before. Unlike last year when it was Richardson vs. Joe Flacco, Richardson vs. Jones should be easier to evaluate for the coaching staff since Richardson and Jones play a much more similar style. Richardson would be a higher upside play, but more volatile, which says a lot given his competition. Jones will likely be steadier and give the Colts offense some sort of baseline even though he comes with his own volatility. Overall, the uncertainty and lack of faith in this position is what will most likely hold the Colts back this season.

Outside of QB, this Colts offense actually has some good pieces. The WR core is very complementary of each other, Jonathan Taylor is still one of the best running backs in the NFL, Tyler Warren can be utilized in many different way and add layers to this offense, and the offensive line is fine, if nothing else. All of these players being deployed by Shane Steichen can actually help elevate whichever QB ends up starting. At worst, this Colts running game should be pretty good, but the pass game will almost certainly be a question mark. There’s a chance that this offense is good enough, but that’s a tough bet to make with a QB situation that leaves a lot to be desired.

The most exciting part of this year’s Colts is the defense. The addition of Lou Anarumo is a big one for Indianapolis. Anarumo’s defenses haven’t been statistically great over the years, but this will be the most talented defense he has coached in years. Adding Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum, two scheme fits in Anarumo’s defense, is significant. Ward is the best corner Anarumo has had since becoming a defensive coordinator, and Cam Bynum is the best safety he has had since Cincinnati let Jessie Bates walk for nothing. These additions combined with a defensive line that has a chance to be better than last year, there’s good reason to believe this Colts defense will be much improved and probably keep them in some games they shouldn’t be in.

Record Prediction: 5-12

4. Tennessee Titans

Head Coach, Coordinator Changes: N/A
Free Agency Signings, Retentions: T Dan Moore Jr., G Kevin Zeitler, WR Tyler Lockett, WR Van Jefferson, S Xavier Woods, EDGE Dre’Mont Jones, LB Cody Barton, QB Brandon Allen, QB Tim Boyle, IOL Brenden Jaimes, G Blake Hance, G Sam Mustipher, T Olisaemeka Udoh, CB Amani Oruwariye, DL Carlos Watkins, LB Amari Burney, LB Curtis Jacobs
Notable Draft Selections: QB Cam Ward, EDGE Oluwafemi Oladejo, S Kevin Winston Jr., WR Chimere Dike, WR Elic Ayomanor

Instability has been the defining trait of the Titans ever since they decided to not pay AJ Brown, traded him away, and attempted to replace him with Treylon Burks. This move was the beginning of a stretch of seasons without alignment between the HC and GM. Tennessee has fired 2 GMs and HC Mike Vrabel since then, but now there is hope after drafting QB Cam Ward with the 1st overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. After the regression of Ryan Tannehill and Will Levis having many embarrassing moments, the Titans finally have a QB they can look at and feel confident in. There’s no guarantee that Ward will be better than those guys, but it’s difficult to see a world where he’s not. What are realistic expectations for Cam Ward’s rookie season? Can he be the next rookie QB to lead his team to the playoffs?

On offense, Tennessee has two things they can look at and feel good about: Rookie QB Cam Ward and the offensive line. Ward showed a lot at his lone season at Miami. Playing in and out of structure, good arm strength, touch and ability to layer throws, capability on the ground, good feel for the pocket, poise under pressure, and leadership were all abilities and traits shown on tape. Cam Ward is an immediate and substantial upgrade over Will Levis, and should be able to deliver some quality play in year 1, although struggles and bumps in the road should be expected since he is a rookie. The offensive line is the best in the entire AFC South. Skoronski, Cushenberry and Zeitler is a strong interior, JC Latham is entering his 2nd season, and Dan Moore Jr. is an upgrade in the short-term even though the contract is hefty. Not to mention, Bill Callahan is one of the best offensive line coaches of the 21st century.

After those bright spots, there is room for improvement in the backfield and out wide. Calvin Ridley was actually solid for Tennessee last season, but they’ve also added veteran WR Tyler Lockett and rookie WRs Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor. There is a chance that this passing attack can be much improved from last season between the upgrade at QB and the addition at WR, but most of the significant additions on the outside are unknowns or low-ceiling knowns. For the ground game, maybe the improvement from the offensive line can create better opportunities for Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears to be more efficient. Overall, there’s reason to have a fair amount of optimism for this Titans offense.

However, the defense doesn’t look promising for the Titans in 2025. Jeffery Simmons, L’Jarius Sneed and Amani Hooker are good players, but after that, it’s full of uninspiring personnel or more unknowns. Even then, Sneed dealt with injuries last season and one of the Titans’ most notable draft picks on the defensive side of the ball, Kevin Winston Jr., is coming off of a torn ACL injury. The path for the Titans defense to be a mediocre or good unit this season is for Simmons and Sneed to both play at a star (or superstar) level, and for a couple (or all) of their defensive draft picks to pop and give them good play. Aside from that, it’s hard to see this Titans defense being good enough for the Titans to be sneaky and be in the playoff mix late in the season.

Record Prediction: 5-12