2025 NFC South Division Preview

The NFC South has been seen as “weak” for most of the 2020s. Since 2020, the division has been won by Tampa Bay every year, with two of those years being without double-digit wins, and one of the division titles being won despite being under .500. Now that most of the major offseason moves seem to be behind all of these teams with all of the focus on training camp and the upcoming season, it’s time to see if we believe anything will change, and how we think these teams stack up with each other.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Head Coach, Coordinator Changes: OC Josh Grizzard
Free Agency Signings, Retentions: WR Chris Godwin, IOL Ben Bredeson, LB Lavonte David, EDGE Haason Reddick
Notable Draft Selections: WR Emeka Egbuka, CB Benjamin Morrison, NCB Jacob Parrish

Tampa Bay has separated themselves from the rest of the NFC South in recent years. After the departures of Bruce Arians and Tom Brady, the Buccaneers pivoted to Todd Bowles and (eventually) Baker Mayfield pretty seamlessly, continuing to win the division after both of those changes.

The Buccaneers offense has improved since Mayfield took over the huddle and hitting on their last 2 coordinator hires. In 2023 and 2024, Tampa Bay had the 12th and 4th ranked passing offense. However, the running game was unlocked for the Buccaneers by Liam Coen in 2024. After the additions of Graham Barton and Bucky Irving, Coen implemented a lot more gap scheme concepts in the running game and took the Bucs’ rushing offense from 31st to 5th.

The problem now, though? Liam Coen (in dramatic fashion) left Tampa and went up north to Jacksonville. Hiring good offensive coordinators in 3 consecutive seasons is a difficult task, but that’s to be expected when the head coach is not directly tied to what ends up being a good offense. Grizzard was the pass game coordinator for this same team in 2024, so similar production from the passing game is a reasonable expectation, especially after drafting WR Emeka Egbuka 19th overall. Production from the running game is something to keep an eye on for this Buccaneers offense. Does the running game fall to the lows of Canales’ time in Tampa or does it continue to excel similarly to Coen’s season with the Buccaneers? That is to be determined, but the truth will likely lie somewhere in the middle.

Todd Bowles’ defense and overall game management has been lackluster since taking over as head coach for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The defense in particular has been in the bottom half of total yards allowed the last 2 seasons, and mediocre in scoring defense in 2 of the last 3 seasons, though they were top 5 in scoring defense in 2023 despite giving up so many yards. Bowles has went away from his traditional man-blitz heavy scheme, as he is still blitzing a lot, but being bottom half of the league in team man coverage rate. The Buccaneers may go back to running a lot of man blitzes after adding Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish in the draft. Both prospects were primarily man coverage corners in college and did well when healthy. If either of them pop as rookies and Haason Reddick rebounds from a poor season with the Jets, the Buccaneers can be one of the league’s better defenses once again, but there’s a lot of variance in that scenario.

Record Prediction: 10-7

2. Carolina Panthers

Head Coach, Coordinator Changes: n/a
Free Agency Signings, Retentions: S Tre’Von Moehrig, DL Tershawn Wharton, DL Bobby Brown, RB Rico Dowdle, C Austin Corbett, QB Andy Dalton, TE Tommy Tremble, EDGE Pat Jones II, OL Brady Christensen, CB Michael Jackson
Notable Draft Selections: WR Tetairoa McMillan, EDGE Nic Scourton, EDGE Princely Umanmielen, RB Trevor Etienne

The Panthers have been mediocre at best since the final days of Cam Newton’s prime. There has not been much of an identity on either side of the ball, especially since the unexpected retirement of Luke Kuechly after the 2019 season. Whether it be a coach, player, position group or anything else, there has been not been a defining element for this franchise, but that has a chance to change here in 2025.

In 2024, the Panthers invested heavily in the offensive line, and the offensive side of the ball in general, with hopes of unlocking Bryce Young after a disappointing rookie campaign. The investment in the line ended up paying off and creating substantial improvement up front, but Young still struggled mightily to open up the season and ended up getting benched for veteran QB Andy Dalton. The 1st overall pick in 2023 eventually got the starting job back and actually showed some promise in the final stretch of the season, closing the season with an emphatic 275 total yards and 5 total touchdowns performance vs the division rival Atlanta Falcons.

Beyond Bryce Young, the Panthers found an offensive identity behind their offensive line and running game. Carolina was top 10 in rushing yards per attempt as a team, but weren’t often able to hammer home the running game as they were down in games regularly. Carolina’s rushing attack accounted for a little bit over 37% of their total offense, which was the 11th highest in the NFL. With the addition of Tetairoa McMillan, the possible resurgence of Bryce Young, and more continuity for Dave Canales’ system, there’d reason to believe this offense can be in the top half of the league and leverage their strengths much more than they were able to in 2024.

Carolina’s defense is where a lot of additions were made this offseason. S Tre’Von Moehrig and DL Tershawn Wharton were given the most money by the Panthers in free agency after losing out on DT Milton Williams. DC Ejiro Evero has a chance to make Moehrig a real weapon in this Panthers secondary if he moves him around and gets him near the ball on every play. Moehrig can play traditional FS and get downhill in different sub-packages. If Moehrig is just placed in one spot, his value is mitigated, but if Evero takes advantage of Moehrig’s versatility, that’s where he can become a weapon for this defense.

Wharton got a big payday after having his only real good year with the Chiefs. He is a good fit next to Derrick Brown and did a nice job in both pass and run defense last season, but it’s a risky investment in a player who has only had one good season in the NFL. This was one of many moves along the defensive line, with Carolina also adding DT Bobby Brown as a depth piece and adding 3 new EDGE players (Nic Scourton, Princely Umanmielen, Pat Jones II). This group is a wild card for the Panthers, with a chance to pop and elevate this defense. Between these additions and already having 2 star players on defense (Derrick Brown and Jaycee Horn), Carolina’s defense has a real shot at improving in 2025.

Record Prediction: 7-10

3. Atlanta Falcons

Head Coach, Coordinator Changes: DC Jeff Ulbrich
Free Agency Signings, Retentions: EDGE Leonard Floyd, LB Divine Deablo, CB Mike Hughes, WR KhaDarel Hodge, CB Mike Ford, LB Josh Woods, OL Elijah Wilkinson
Notable Draft Selections: EDGE Jalon Walker, EDGE James Pearce Jr., S Xavier Watts, S/NCB Billy Bowman

This is a really important year for Raheem Morris and his coaching staff. After handing a 35 year-old going on 36 Kirk Cousins a huge contract while recovering from a torn achilles, the veteran QB flamed out and didn’t finish the season as the starter. Now all of the pressure is on Michael Penix Jr. to be a big upgrade from Cousins since internal improvement is the only pathway for this Falcons to improve following an offseason that was primarily focused on defense. Bijan Robinson and Drake London are nice to have as your primary weapons, Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts are solid supporting pieces, and this Atlanta offensive line is one of the top 10 in football.

Atlanta’s offseason, particularly their draft, was dedicated to fixing this defense. In the first round, they added Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. to give them more juice off of the edge. In the 3rd and 4th round, they brought in Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman to unlock more looks in the secondary. Jessie Bates is already one of the best, most versatile safeties in football. Now the Falcons may have unlocked more looks to throw at teams in the secondary by adding 2 more versatile pieces.

Ultimately, the Falcons’ season is reliant on young, unproven players to give them big time production in order to make the large strides they need to reach the playoffs, which seems to be the goal and expectation from ownership. Michael Penix, the rookie EDGE players, the rookie secondary players, and new DC Jeff Ulbrich all need to make their mark on this season or else Raheem Morris and Terry Fontenot’s seats can be scorching, if not kicked out of them. All of these things going in their favor is hard to imagine, but crazier things have happened.

Record Prediction: 7-10

4. New Orleans Saints

Head Coach, Coordinator Changes: HC Kellen Moore, OC Doug Nussmeier, DC Brandon Staley
Free Agency Signings, Retentions: S Justin Reid, EDGE Chase Young, TE Juwan Johnson, IDL Davon Godchaux (trade), WR Dante Pettis, CB Isaac Yiadom, TE Jack Stoll, IOL Will Clapp
Notable Draft Selections: OT Kelvin Banks, QB Tyler Shough, S Jonas Sanker, LB Danny Stutsman

The New Orleans Saints have been one of the most unserious and mediocre franchises in the NFL since the departure of Drew Brees. That was amplified after Sean Payton left, took a year off, and officially cut ties with the franchise to take the head coaching job with the Denver Broncos. The franchise has been in cap hell, had Dennis Allen (a previously failed head coach with the Raiders) leading the team, and have had Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, Spencer Rattler, and a watered down Derek Carr as their starting QBs. Bottoming out and getting a high enough draft pick to draft a QB seems like the logical move for the franchise, but New Orleans has decided to try competing every season. With a new head coach coming in, there may be a grace period/season given to Kellen Moore. With how this roster looks on paper, he should be hoping that ends up being the case.

Let’s begin with the positive on offense: This offensive line has a chance to be pretty good. C Erik McCoy has been very good for the Saints the last couple seasons. For the 2nd year in a row, the Saints drafted an offensive tackle with their first round pick. Taliese Fuaga had a solid rookie campaign and looks promising, while Kelvin Banks is extremely talented and can become a very good starter with the right coaching. Trevor Penning has also shown promise as a run blocker and will likely be playing guard for the Saints this season, and that may lessen the importance of his struggles in pass protection.

The weapons for this offense are also solid. Chris Olave is a good #1 WR, but has injury issues (the concussions are very concerning), and Rashid Shaheed is a nice deep threat and complement to Olave. Alvin Kamara is still one of the better RBs in the NFL even if he isn’t the same player he was a few years ago. The concern for this offense, however, is QB Tyler Shough. Shough has some talent, but doesn’t have the experience you’d like from a 7-year college player, and can be a very volatile player in the NFL despite having a low ceiling because of his style of play. With Shough leading the huddle, it’s difficult to get too excited about this offense considering he may have the typical struggles that rookie QBs tend to go through.

The Saints defense has some nice veteran talent on the roster, but not many difference makers in their prime. Demario Davis and Tyrann Mathieu are still really good players even though they’re older. Justin Reid and Pete Werner are good starters at their position in the middle of their primes. Chase Young and Carl Granderson are solid #2 EDGE players, but you’d like more juice on the defensive line. The cornerback room is worrisome, particularly since their highest upside CB is a man corner, Kool-Aid McKinstry, who now has to play in a zone-heavy scheme. Most concerning of all, Brandon Staley is the defensive coordinator here in New Orleans, and may end up having these veterans quit on him after a few weeks in a poor scheme.

Record Prediction: 4-13