OKC Thunder vs Indiana Pacers 2025 NBA Finals Preview: Matchups To Watch, Keys, X-Factors

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder drives on Tyrese Haliburton

The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers will face off in an unexpected NBA Finals matchup. A prolific scoring guard vs a prolific playmaking guard. An all-time great defense vs the league’s best offense. The pre-season favorite out west vs a team hardly anyone outside of the state of Indiana thought would make it to the NBA Finals. Both teams are trying to make their mark in NBA history. The Pacers are looking to bring the first ever NBA Championship in franchise history behind one of the most shocking and outstanding playoff runs the sport has ever seen, while the Thunder look to cement themselves as one of the greatest teams of all-time and win their first championship since the move away from Seattle. Today, we will be looking at matchups, keys, potential swing factors, and x-factors for both teams in this series.

Pacers Offense vs. Thunder Defense

1.) IND’s Ball Handling vs. OKC’s Ball Pressure

Indiana’s exceptional ability to move the basketball constantly while limiting turnovers is arguably the most impressive component of their offense. Tyrese Haliburton is averaging less than 2 turnovers per game in these playoffs, along with Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam and T.J. McConnell also doing a great job protecting the basketball while being key ball handlers for this explosive offense.

With all that being said, Indiana has not faced a team so far in these playoffs with close to the same caliber of defense across the perimeter. Oklahoma City has forced 17 turnovers per game in these playoffs, with the next best team being the Cleveland Cavaliers at 14.6 turnovers forced per game. Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace all relentlessly get in the ball handler’s jersey and deny the basketball at a high level, and are the cause of many turnovers that result in offensive flurries for the Thunder. If Indiana’s ball handlers can mitigate the ball pressure of OKC, the Pacers can limit points off turnovers for the Thunder, which is an average of over 20 points off turnovers in their wins in these playoffs.

2.) IND’s Offensive Stars vs. OKC’s Switches

If the Pacers punish OKC’s ball pressure and beat their traditional defensive at-the-level coverages, there is a high chance of Oklahoma City looking at other coverages, like zone coverages and switching. If OKC looks to switch (or in cross-matching situations), Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam will need to punish perceived mismatches vs the Thunder.

Tyrese Haliburton needs to be very aggressive against the big men of OKC in order to open up easier opportunities for his team against a coverage that is meant to stagnate the offense. Siakam will need to punish the smaller OKC defenders, but first, Indiana has to execute the entry passes that all of OKC’s opponents have struggled with against them in the postseason. Julius Randle essentially got shut down by this. Even 3x MVP Nikola Jokic had trouble with this for stretches against the Thunder defense, most notably vs Alex Caruso in Game 7 of the Western Conference Semi-Finals.

3.) IND Needs Sustained Aggression From Tyrese Haliburton

While Haliburton is typically running the Pacers offense, there are games where he simply feels like he’s not involved and very passive. Games like that are not acceptable in a series like this. A performance of that nature would likely guarantee a loss for Indiana in a game where that takes place. Against a defense where there isn’t much margin for error, Indiana is gonna need their best player to give the Thunder his best shot, and in turn, the Indiana Pacers’ best shot.

Thunder Offense vs. Pacers Defense

1.) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs… Who?

Andrew Nembhard has emerged as one of the better point-of-attack guard defenders this season, but SGA regularly gave him buckets in both of the games they faced off in this season. In their first meeting in late December, SGA went for an efficient 45 points in a crunch time victory where he was primarily guarded by Nembhard. While the Pacers were fighting for seeding in late March, the two met up a second time, and SGA went for another efficient 33 in a 21 point victory.

You can point to Aaron Nesmith as the next man up, providing more of a strength obstacle to SGA than Nembhard, but we don’t know how that would look since he guarded Jalen Williams in the 2nd meeting and didn’t play in the 1st meeting. There seems to not be a defender who can slow SGA down, and if he is just allowed to have his way, there might not be a way to stop this offense. SGA has seen every coverage in these playoffs and defeated them all. Indiana’s best option is probably to load up on the ball and try to turn SGA into more of a playmaker than a scorer.

Can Carlisle take it back to 2011 and find a way to stop, or at least slow down, the young superstar?

2.) Can OKC’s Young Stars Deliver?

Oklahoma City has seen just about every defensive coverage this postseason, and while they struggled against zone a decent bit in the Denver series, they eventually figured it out. Defending SGA on an island feels like death, and the Pacers hardly ran zone in these playoffs. Picking up full-court, loading up on the ball, packing the paint and rotating seems to be the most likely course of action for Indiana’s defense.

Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren will need to show why they’ve been held in such high regard. J-Dub was fantastic in the first round and Western Conference Finals, but struggled a lot in the Nuggets series, and has been known to have dry spells and be somewhat inconsistent as an offensive player. J-Dub and Holmgren’s scoring stats in wins and losses look very different. According to Carson Breber, in wins, J-Dub has averaged 21.7 PPG on 58% true shooting, while averaging 16.8 PPG on under 45% true shooting. Holmgren in wins has averaged 17 PPG on more than 62% true shooting, while averaging less than 15 PPG on under less than 52% true shooting.

If these players can’t deliver while the 2025 NBA MVP is drawing the defense’s attention, this series can begin to get a little spooky for the heavy favorites.

3.) Can OKC Do Enough From Behind The Arc?

In a series where OKC may try to go with Holmgren at the 5 for a lot of the matchup, and Indiana may try to load up on SGA, there will be an emphasis on perimeter play for the Thunder. Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace will likely get an uptick in minutes in this scenario, both of whom have had a weird playoffs from behind the arc considering how they’ve shot the ball from 3 in their careers.

Caruso, who has been a streaky shooter for a lot of his career, has shot over 41% from 3 in these playoffs. Wallace, who has been a reliable 3 point shooter in his short career, has shot the ball at less than a 33% clip in this postseason. OKC has shot 40.9% on wide open 3 pointers in these playoffs, and less than 26% on 3 pointers that are not wide open. This will be something to monitor for a young team, with the majority of their players playing in their first NBA Finals series.

Pacers guard Andrew Nembhard smiles during a home game.

X-Factors & Swing Factors

Indiana Pacers X-Factor: Andrew Nembhard

If Nembhard can find a way to slow down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, that would be something that can swing this series in its entirety. Even if Nembhard fails to do that, his role in the defensive scheme of Indiana is extremely important. If he eventually gets switched onto Jalen Williams so Nesmith can guard SGA, Nembhard shutting off the water of J-Dub would be an important component for a potential Pacers championship. On the offensive end, as a player who regularly runs second-side action for Indiana, his tough shot-making and ability to limit turnovers with his ball handling and passing will be needed for the Pacers to win this series.

Oklahoma City Thunder X-Factor: Chet Holmgren

This is a series where it can be expected that Holmgren plays a lot of minutes at the 5 to try matching speed with the Pacers and give OKC more of an ability to switch on the perimeter. With Isaiah Hartenstein’s minutes having a decent chance of being limited in this series, Chet Holmgren’s presence will need to be felt on both ends to make that strategy work. We haven’t seen Holmgren play in this matchup at all this season since he sat out both games vs Indiana. Holmgren’s defensive presence, rebounding and ability to attack closeouts will be vital to Oklahoma City’s success in this series. There is a chance he transforms OKC’s look in this matchup if he does these things.

Swing Factor #1: Turnover and Transition Battles
Swing Factor #2: Indiana Pacers Attacking Mismatches
Swing Factor #3: Can Pascal Siakam Outplay JDub & Chet Holmgren?

Prediction

Oklahoma City Thunder defeat Indiana Pacers in 5 games

Path For The Pacers

It’s a tough road for the Indiana Pacers, as this just feels like a tough matchup for a very consistent organization. They’d have to win the turnover battle, outclass the Thunder in transition and take advantage of cross-matches and switches. Pascal Siakam would have to dominate on the offensive end while also wreaking havoc on defense.

If the Pacers do end up loading up on SGA, they’ll have to limit the rest of OKC’s players, including J-Dub and Chet Holmgren. All this has to take place while Tyrese Haliburton stays aggressive, as that would be the foundation to this Pacers season ending in a championship.

Why OKC in 5?

While Indiana’s offense is outstanding and their defense has improved much more since the 2024 season, Oklahoma City just has more answers to the test than Indiana in this matchup. OKC has one of the greatest, most versatile defenses of all-time, while having the runaway best player in this series, who also just happens to be the 2025 NBA MVP and should be able to produce enough offense for his team to win.

There may be games where Indiana succumbs to the ball pressure of OKC, where it will be difficult to just get the ball into the post for Pascal Siakam or Myles Turner looking to hunt a mismatch, where OKC’s tenacious closeouts bother Indiana’s shooters, or where Tyrese Haliburton just goes passive.

On the offensive end for the Thunder, there doesn’t seem to be a player or defensive coverage that can be deployed to make Shai Gilgeous-Alexander uncomfortable, and in turn, Oklahoma City’s entire offense uncomfortable. OKC’s all-time great defense stifling Indiana’s offense enough with numerous lineups and coverages, and SGA making his team’s life easier on offense, feels like a recipe for a 5-game series.