The NBA’s New Top Thirty
The 2024-25 NBA Season was among the most unique in its recent history. Categorized by unforeseen leaps, injuries to key talents, and world-shaking trades, nothing about this past year of basketball has screamed “expected” – and it’s what we as a fan base needed.
As is tradition, our handcrafted player impact statistic PIERCE (Player Impact Evaluations Re-adjusted Considering Era) has some opinions of its own on basketball’s greatest geniuses. Let’s take a dive into its assessment below, divvied up into tiers.
For information on what PIERCE calculates and how player tiers work, click here.
For information on player offensive archetypes, click here.
The Sideline Crew
Injury-Stricken Honorable Mentions
Players are listed alphabetically.
- Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
- Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
- De’Aaron Fox, San Antonio Spurs
- Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
These are names deserving of star-caliber recognition, but hampered by injuries in a fashion detested by the statistic. Paolo Banchero’s placement was far from the “top 30” baseline of major recognition, but as a former PIERCE All-Star, his name deserved reference. Teammates Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox, on the other hand, were both just short of the domain.
This confirms their individual excellence, despite missed time. Wembanyama in particular missed nearly half the season and possessed a weak Regression Factor – a death sentence combination in PIERCE – yet barely fell short of top 30 contention. Hopefully we can see the prospect bounce back from his unfortunate health dilemma and deliver the Superstar-caliber seasonal impact he’s capable of.
Boston’s Jaylen Brown was noticeably subpar as an offensive impact piece, recording a career-worst Adjusted True Shooting and his lowest scoring output since 2020. Regardless, injuries certainly played a role in his sudden decline following a Finals MVP recognition – next season will determine if his struggles are bound to stick around, or a manageable slump.
All-Stars
No. 19 – No. 30 Range
Players are listed alphabetically.
- Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat
- Anthony Davis, Dallas Mavericks
- DeMar DeRozan, Sacramento Kings
- Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers
- Tyler Herro, Miami Heat
- Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies
- Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks
- Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
- Pascal Siakam, Indiana Pacers
- Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
- Ivica Zubac, Los Angeles Clippers
- Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets
The NBA’s peripheral contributors were an exciting clique overflowing with prestige, a common trend over the past half-decade. Depth of aptitude is arguably better than ever, with plenty of All-NBA-caliber players occupying this range – Jaren Jackson Jr. and Evan Mobley in particular are two defensive greats with an argument for uprising. Such endeavors are bound to be a long-term objective centered around strengthening their Regression Factors as a consistent assertion of team impact.
Four of this season’s official first-time All-Stars make the tier, including the aforementioned Mobley, Miami’s Tyler Herro, Houston’s Alperen Şengün, and Oklahoma City’s Jalen Williams. All three were vital to the successes of their respective clubs through carrying a weak offense, leading a 52-win effort, and contributing to a historic regular season respectively.
Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard are two well-known stars afflicted by rank-hindering injuries – when healthy, they are closer to resembling the value of a Superstar and All-NBA talent respectively. This marks Davis’ fourth instance in the last five years of playing less than 70% of his eligible games, which has cratered his placements in the ’20s decade.
The remaining PIERCE All-Stars are about expected, with the exception of Most Improved Player candidate Ivica Zubac – the Los Angeles Clippers fan favorite found a comfortability in his interior presence, influences improvements in defense, vertical spacing and self-creation. He was in fact mere decimals away from sneaking into the All-NBA tier – but a future Hall of Famer in Arizona denied his entry.
All-NBA
No. 13 – No. 18 Range
Players are listed alphabetically.
- Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
- Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
- Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns
- Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers
- Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings
- Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks
PIERCE’s All-NBA tier is typically more expansive, inducting eight members by default – however, its high-end candidates were so close to the Superstar tier numerically that they ascended beyond this grouping.
Regardless, this is still a prestigious realm to be part of – these six spectacles pieced together great individual and team campaigns, exclusively sporting positive win-loss ratios. This surprisingly includes Kevin Durant, who enjoyed another monstrous run at the tender age of 36 – the underwhelming Phoenix Suns experienced a solid 44-win pace with the reputable scorer, versus an abysmal 12-win pace otherwise.
Offensive talents Cade Cunningham, Stephen Curry, and Tyrese Haliburton occupy this range as well, willing their teams to playoff contention in nail-biting fashion. The latter two experienced early-season slumps overshadowed by a post-2025 turnaround, and Cunningham spearheaded an incredible 30-win improvement from the previous year for the Detroit Pistons – even PIERCE’s third-tier stars are making history.
Domantas Sabonis and Karl-Anthony Towns remain favorites of the statistic, likely due to their gaudy production and influence on some of the league’s best offenses. However, both have huge defensive woes that explain their inability to trickle into the Superstar tier. As big men, rim protection is vital!
Superstars
No. 4 – No. 12 Range
Players are listed alphabetically.
- Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns
- Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
- Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers
- Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
- James Harden, Los Angeles Clippers
- LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
- Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
- Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
- Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
A major narrative of the ’25 season was guard potency, which has been interestingly prominent compared to usual. A whopping seven of nine PIERCE Superstars are traditionally classified as guards, and among our offensive archetypes, over half are Dual Handlers.
Such a dynamic isn’t so much indicative of the stat’s credit to offense as it is proof that the NBA lacked standout two-way campaigns – of course, the enigmatic Victor Wembanyama was on pace to shatter the competition on that end, but suffered from injury. Anthony Davis’ sideline misadventures didn’t help, either. So what does that leave us with?
An abundance of offense-driven, yet concurrently gifted league headliners.
The Superstar-tier’s biggest surprises lie in Devin Booker and Trae Young, who weren’t exactly integral to sensational stories. Booker’s Phoenix Suns were disgustingly disappointing, although it can be argued that their sole strength – a top-ten-ranked offense – was a direct byproduct of his career-best availability and playmaking developments.
Young’s Atlanta Hawks experienced another journey of mediocrity, although this can be attributed to injuries. However, the star’s offense wasn’t necessarily league-crushing. He did collect an impressive assists title – the first of his career – but also recorded his worst scoring average and Adjusted True Shooting since his rookie season. A good amount of that scoring decline can be attributed to a reduction in help – therefore influencing a less healthy shot diet – but PIERCE’s leniency on his box score erraticism is intriguing.
Other contemporaries’ appearances are less shocking – Anthony Edwards and Donovan Mitchell enjoy their first career Superstar seasons under the statistic, and James Harden returns after a four-year absence. The Los Angeles Clippers star is certainly deserving, leading a team with an expected record of 36-46 to 50 wins and a 5-seed in a competitive Western Conference.
This is also LeBron James’ fourth time sharing the PIERCE top ten with a teammate (Luka Dončić), joining the 2011, 2020, and 2024 seasons. This is the third occurrence of such in his six-year Los Angeles Lakers tenure.
MVP
No. 1 – No. 3 Range
Players are listed alphabetically.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
- Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
The NBA’s official MVP race was truly a two-man affair, but Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo asserted himself as a distant consensus third. This marks the Greek Freak’s seventh consecutive season of PIERCE MVP honors, tying Tim Duncan for the second-most among traditionally recognized power forwards. His Milwaukee Bucks were mightily unstable, starting the season on a 2-8 run and finishing matters on an 8-game win streak – but if there was any sense of security surrounding the organization, it was Antetokounmpo’s trustiness as a floor raiser.
Regarding the debate of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić for MVP – which was one of this season’s most explosive narratives – PIERCE properly views them as a firm top two contenders. Both cases are rightful, with Gilgeous-Alexander leading a 68-win Oklahoma City Thunder unit that broke multiple regular season records in spite of the inconsistently available Chet Holmgren.
On the flipside, however, Jokić’s historic season of averaging a triple double – which has otherwise only been done by Oscar Robertson and teammate Russell Westbrook – is an indicator of his historically good offensive impact. His claim is accentuated when the fragile nature of his supporting cast and organizational personnel is considered.
So what does PIERCE say?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wins the statistic’s numerical MVP by a mere margin of 0.09 points – an incredibly narrow victory! Jokić instead possesses the advantage in Overall Value, indicating his ownership of the NBA’s best statistical profile. It’s Gilgeous-Alexander’s anchorage of such an dominant team that was too enticing to deny.
Regardless, both options are valid and the numbers agree – it’s safe to say that this bizarre season was evaluated with mathematical care!
Title Runners 